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Big Ten Geeks's Bio: Josh Reed and Mike Portscheller are two Big Ten basketball fans who love to crunch numbers almost as much as they enjoy watching hoops. Follow their analysis all season long and drop them a note in he comments below, the e-mail form on the right, or via Twitter @bigtengeeks. |
Big Game Preview - OSU vs. Cal
| Today, 1:24 PM | Topic: Hoops preview |
| Ohio State v. Cal, 4 pm CT, ESPN2 Overview: The consolation game in the Coaches vs. Cancer tournament, this was frankly the matchup I was expecting in the championship game. What to look for: Offensively the Golden Bears have few rivals. Last year they led the country in three point accuracy, and they were also the odd offense that mostly stayed inside, yet kept turnovers to a minimum. But they didn't go the the line much or rebound all that well. Think of them as the rich man's version of Illinois - a "POT without the P." From that team, the Bears returned over 90% of the minutes. That's the good news. The bad news is that opposing offenses went through Cal like a hot knife through butter. Who to watch: If there's one reason to watch Cal play, it's Jerome Randle. He's 5-10, and does everything you could possibly ask a player of that size to do. He shots well from 3 (46 percent), from 2 (53 percent), he creates for others (28.3 assist rate), and he even gets to the free throw line with frequency (42.3 free throw rate). Just don't ask him to rebound. Expect the unexpected: Evan Turner had 10 turnovers yesterday. I'm going to venture way out on a limb and declare that he will have fewer than 10 turnovers today. Not only is it statistically unlikely that such a talented player would suffer through 20 turnovers in less than 24 hours, but it's especially unlikely given the caliber of Cal's defense. These guys just don't defend. They don't get steals, they don't block shots, they don't disrupt shooters, and for a team that doesn't seem to be guarding anyone, they foul too much. They do rebound (2nd in the Pac-10 last year in defensive rebounding), but that's about it. This game is a matchup of two powerful offenses against two defenses that have struggled in the past. Expect a shootout. The Geeky pick: Ohio State by 5. |
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Mr. Triple Double
| Today, 8:36 AM | Topic: Hoops recap |
| Evan Turner posted his second triple double of the season last night. Unfortunately, it included 10 turnovers as Ohio State fell to UNC 77-73 in a 73 possession game. I'll probably get labeled as a homer for this one, but so be it: I think that last night's game was a bit of a fluke. Yes, that's in spite of the fact that UNC led throughout and the Buckeyes only made it close in the last 5 minutes or so. Hear me out though - despite the 10 turnovers from Mr. Turner, UNC actually turned the ball over more, a result that should not have surprised anyone. What's truly remarkable, however, is that the Buckeyes actually rebounded better than UNC did, posting a 39.5 percent offensive rebounding percentage to UNC's 31.3. This is an area in which the Tar Heels normally excel. Conversely, an area where the Buckeyes ought to shine - shooting - was actually won by UNC last night (55.7 eFG to 47.5 eFG). Mind you, I don't know who wins if the teams play to their own traditional strengths rather than to their opponents. I just know that there won't be too many times that UNC will be outrebounded this season, and there won't be too many times when the Buckeyes are outshot. Along with his 10 turnovers, Turner had 23 points and 11 boards (14 shots). Box score. Speaking of shooting, that also proved to be the difference in Penn State's loss to UNC-Wilmington last night in the Charleston Classic. The Nittany Lions posted an eFG of just 36.2, but that was not the biggest problem. No, the larger issue was the fact that UNC-W posted an eFG of 68.1, fueled by their 10-16 display from 3 point range. Indeed, although they couldn't hit a barndoor with a banjo, PSU still posted over a point per possession, thanks to their sparkling turnover rate (7.6 percent). Had they limited UNC-W to simply "moderately good" shooting, the outcome might have been different. Talor Battle played the entire game and led the Nittany Lions with 29 points on 23 shots, to go with 8 rebounds. Box score. Indiana showed its youth yesterday afternoon, losing to Ole Miss 89-71 in a very brisk 79 possessions. The Hoosiers turned it over (26.6 TO percentage), shot poorly from the field (43.4 eFG), and they even layed bricks at the foul line for good measure (44.4 FT percentage). The silver lining was a tremendous effort on the offensive glass (45.3 offensive rebound percentage) - the dark lining on that silver lining was that Mississippi actually was better in that area (47.2). Jeremiah Rivers had 14 points on just 6 shots to go with 7 rebounds and 5 assists. Box score. Minnesota grabbed the conference's only win last night, coasting to a 76-51 victory over Utah Valley in a 67 possession game. This matchup featured one of the most lopsided turnover margins you'll ever see - 26 to 5. That's a 21 possession advantage for the Gophers, who were actually outshot in this contest. But because of those turnovers, they took 21 more shots. Lots of Gophers had good lines, but I'll single out freshman Rodney Williams who hit for 17 points on 12 shots in his first career start. He also grabbed 6 rebounds and collected 4 steals. Box score. - Josh |
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Big Game Preview - OSU vs. UNC, Indiana vs. Mississippi
| Nov 19 2009, 11:21 AM | Topic: Hoops preview |
| Indiana vs. Mississippi (in San Juan) 4pm, ESPN2 Overview: After languishing in the basement for years, the Rebels have languished in mediocrity in the SEC over the past 3 seasons. With an entire roster returning along with a solid recruiting class, they're going to make some noise in the SEC. What to look for: An improved defense, ideally. The Rebels did two things well on defense last year - guard the 3 point line, and the FT line. They don't get credit for the latter. With a healthy roster, this should improve, but it's an open question as to how. If you squint, the statistical profile looks a little like UConn Lite - a shotblocking team that doesn't force turnovers and sacrifices defensive rebounds for blocks. Given that there's only one proven shotblocker on this team (Malcolm White), and he's not all that special in that department, that's probably not the way to go. Who to watch: Chris Warren might be the strongest competition for Jerome Randle for the best player under 6'. As a freshman, all Warren did was average 16 points a game while shooting 39% from 3 point range. Last year he looked to be doing better before getting injured. Now he's healthy again, and should prove to be stiff competition for John Wall for the All-SEC 1st team. Expect the unexpected: In College Basketball Prospectus' excellent analysis, it points out that Murphy Holloway is the perfect lunch pail player. He's a beast on the boards, makes his shots, doesn't turn it over, and he even gets to the line a little bit. Despite that, there were signs that Coach Andy Kennedy was leaning toward playing hyped freshman Reginald Buckner. John Gasaway urged Kennedy not to make the mistake of letting hype trump performance. Fortunately, the early signs are that he hasn't - Holloway has played 50 minutes this season, while Buckner has played a backup-appropriate 32. The Geeky pick: Mississippi by 12. Ohio State vs. UNC (in New York) 8:30 pm, ESPN2 Overview: Three years ago Mike Conley led an Odenless Buckeye squad in a thoroughly entertaining matchup in Chapel Hill. Despite Ron Lewis' 30 point outburst, the Tar Heels took the Buckeyes down. While this year's tilt probably won't be as entertaining (9 players from that game have spent time in the NBA), it's still a matchup between two top 20 teams. What to look for: It's Carolina, so it's a given that they will be good. But how good is an open question right now. Sure, there's 11 RSCI top 100 players on the roster, but 7 of those play PF/C. A lot of good pieces here, but they don't seem to fit very well together. Who to watch: Hard to say right now, but probably Deon Thompson. Ginyard has lots of experience, and Ed Davis is high on mock draft boards, but neither has been a take-charge shooter on the offensive end in the past. But the problem with Thompson is that he hasn't shot over 50% from the field since his freshman season. Keep in mind, we're talking about a 6-9 player who generally shoots from 5 feet or closer who has played with guys who draw a considerable amount of the defense's attention. Someone else is going to have to score. Tyler Zeller? Larry Drew? Beats us. Expect the unexpected: UNC with a turnover problem? It's not a crazy concept - the backcourt is young and inexperienced, and given Williams' preference to shoot from inside the arc, turnovers could hold this team back. Even Roy thinks so. The Geeky pick: Ohio State by 1. |
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Make Shots
| Nov 19 2009, 8:24 AM | Topic: Hoops recap |
| Among student sections, you usually find T-shirts touting the home court advantage that can be found there ("House of Paign"), or a rallying cry designed to bring enthusiasm to the contest ("Boiler Up"), or even simply a celebration of the student section itself ("The Izzone"). Last night, Northwestern students donned shirts that simply said "Make Shots" - something that falls between pleading and demanding. Unfortunately, only one of the teams followed the students' instruction, and they were wearing black. Of course, taking down a top 10 team is a tall task for any team, and especially so for one playing without its best player. Nevertheless, the Wildcats hung with the Bulldogs for a half, but they simply could not match Butler's offensive firepower as the Bulldogs prevailed 67-54. John Shurna and Michael Thompson combined for 30 points on 19 shots, however, they also combined for 8 turnovers in a 60 possession game. Still, it was better than what the rest of the team could manage (24 points on 27 shots, another 8 turnovers). Box score. Wisconsin won a very ugly game over Oakland, 58-42 in a 62 possession game. Both teams were awful from the field (Oakland's 30.0 eFG causes one to ponder whether they were shooting with their eyes closed), and both teams were also careless with the ball. However, to the Badgers' credit, they were excellent in collecting their missed shots, posting a 41% Offensive Rebound Percentage. Frankly, the only place where this game was pretty was at the free through line, were the teams combined to shoot 20-23. Keaton Nankivil had a nice night, with 13 points, 9 boards, and 4 blocks. Box score. -Josh R. |
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Big Game Preview - Northwestern vs. Butler
| Nov 18 2009, 1:35 PM | Topic: Wildcat hoops |
| Northwestern vs. Butler - 7 pm CT, BTN Overview: This is a rematch of last year's tilt (that Butler won by 4), only now it's in Evanston instead of Indianapolis. This is the first of three matchups between the Bulldogs and Big Ten teams, one that would have looked a lot better until Kevin Coble got hurt. What to look for: Butler was more than a little surprising last year, when Brad Stevens shrugged off the fact that the roster had been completely overhauled, and led the Bulldogs to a 26 win season (one that included wins over Xavier, Davidson, and nearly Ohio State, to whom the Bulldogs lost by 3 in Columbus). Now that Butler returns everyone, they're hanging around the top 10 in the polls. Who to watch: If Matt Howard is Tyler Hansbrough, and Gordon Hayward is Robbie Hummel, then Shelvin Mack is Talor Battle - a shoot-first point guard that can rebound. Like Battle, Mack needs to improve on his shooting accuracy. His 76% free throw shooting suggests that he will. Expect the unexpected: For as long as basketballs have been dribbled at Hinkle Fieldhouse (or, more accurately, 2001), the Bulldogs have been among the elite in holding onto the basketball. Until last year, when the roster was chock full of freshmen. Expect the possession-guarding ways to return to Hinkle this season. The Geeky pick: Butler by 7. |
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