Just a quick programming note - we will not be posting recaps during the Big Ten Tournament. For our thoughts on the games, be sure to check out our live blogging throughout the weekend:

http://www.bigtennetwork.com/TOURNEYLIVE

At the outset of the season, we previewed the Big Ten here and here. This past weekend, we revisited some of those predictions, and gave some thoughts to the postseason.

Josh: Ok, Mike, I've been looking at some of our preseason predictions, and I gotta say -- we were better at this last year! But since we need all the help we can get, I'm going to flip the channel over to efficiency margin, where suddenly Michigan looks a lot better. Still, I think there were three big misses: Minnesota wasn't as good as we thought, Wisconsin was (a lot) better, and Indiana was (a lot) worse.

But hey, on the flipside, we nailed that "Northwestern at 8th" prediction!  And to be fair, we did say that OSU could compete for the conference title.

Now, I'll do the dirty work, and will try to explain each of the missteps. My hypothesis with Minnesota is that even Tubby doesn't know what happened with his team defensively. The fact that the same group of players, one year older, can play a markedly worse defense under the same system is just nuts. But if I had to guess, these guys were probably a little over their heads in the previous season, and maybe this is them coming back down to Earth? And then throw in the Al Nolen loss, and a couple hot shooting nights from other teams, and you get the result? Is that plausible?

Wisconsin, I think, is a similar story. Last year was the outlier when you look at how dominant the Badgers have been over the past few seasons, consistently ranking as a top 10 Pomeroy team. Still, it's hard not to be impressed with Bo Ryan's coaching job this year. After they lost defensive rebounding machine Joe Krabbenhoft, I thought I was hitting a ball off a tee when I predicted that they would not rebound as well this season. After all, they were 4th in the nation in defensive rebounding last year. And despite losing Krabbenhoft, they slide into first! There was no reason to doubt the Badger offense this year, but the defensive improvement has been dramatic.

Indiana, to me, looks like a team that just quit after the tough losses to Illinois and Purdue. They were actually playing pretty well, considering the experience level up until that point. But since then, they've been the Big Ten's punching bag. (I wrote this before IU took down the Wildcats, a welcome sign for Tom Crean that there's still some fight left in the Hoosiers)

Ok, I'll let you try and explain what went wrong in Ann Arbor, but after that, no more moping! Onward and upward! Let's talk player of the year -- is there anything to add as a footnote to the "Evan Turner" selection?

Mike: My preseason expectations for Michigan were - as was the case for many prognosticators - way too optimistic. Looking back at my preview, I expected three things to happen to turn Michigan into a darkhorse Big Ten title contender:

• Michigan's defense would remain similar to where it was in 2008-09. Check. It actually improved from 67th nationally to 50th.
  
• Michigan's turnover rate would continue to plummet. It did - Michigan improved from 24th nationally to 6th. Two for two!
  
• Michigan's eFG percentage would improve, possibly dramatically, led by Manny Harris. Whoops.

Michigan actually regressed with their shooting, going from a mediocre 50.3 eFG percentage to a cringe-worthy 47.5. The big problem was three-point shooting, which dropped from 33.4 percent to 29.9 percent. The bottom line is that Michigan's sophomores (Novak, Douglass, and Lucas-Perry) all shot a lot worse than they did as sophomores, and that's not something you expect to see. Oh, and Manny Harris didn't improve his shooting at all. Preview fail.

There's not a whole lot to add about the Player of the Year race. Evan Turner deserves to be National POY, and while there were a lot of great offensive performers in the conference this season, Turner's numbers are just unreal. His combination of scoring, passing, rebounding, and defense is superb. I must admit, I didn't see his dominance coming at all - I remember picking Turner as a potential breakout candidate before his sophomore season, basically as an afterthought, saying "he feels like a potential surprise as well, but not because of three-point shooting. I could see him becoming an effective slasher this season." Hmm, yeah, effective would be one way to put it, but he's so much more than a slasher.

There's nobody else in the Big Ten POY race, but there's a lot of players deserving of all-conference honors (handed out here). Turner showed his versatility by singlehandedly addressing my concerns with Ohio State before the season - the lack of a low-turnover point guard and the lack of rebounding. Turner saw his team's weaknesses and eliminated them.

What do you think of the injury bug that's been going around the upper stratosphere of the league?

Josh: Oy vey. This has been a truly awful year for injuries, hasn't it?  Kevin Coble, Maurice Creek, Kalin Lucas, Jon Leuer, Evan Turner, and Robbie Hummel all missed time due to injuries. Throw in the off-court issues for Anthony Tucker, Royce White, and Al Nolen, and you have an inactive team that could take home the national championship. In light of all that, Illinois, Michigan, and Penn State have to feel a little lucky that they avoided the injury bug.

Obviously, the Hummel injury is the biggest one right now, and probably will have a big effect on Purdue's season. How good are the Boilers without him?  Do they have a real shot at making the 3rd weekend of the Tournament?  Also, handicap the Big Ten Tourney for us -- who do you like?

Mike: I've been very unimpressed with Purdue without Hummel, but maybe that shouldn't be surprising. We're talking about a player that, in most seasons, would deserve to be Big Ten POY, and Purdue isn't exactly stacked with experienced talent off the bench. So far, Purdue has played a little over three and a half games since Hummel's injury, and their scoring margin over that time is just +3. Considering that stretch included just one NCAA Tournament team (and two of the conference's three worst teams), there's much reason for concern. Unless the Boilers get something figured out at the Big Ten Tournament, I'd have to say Purdue's ability to reach the second weekend might be in question (depending on the draw). This is a team that was a legit Final Four contender with Robbie Hummel, but thus far I'm not seeing a great team without him.

For the Big Ten Tournament itself, I think the title comes out of the 1/4/5 half of the bracket. The Badgers have been tough all season (how do those wins over Duke and Maryland look now?), and Jon Leuer seems to be rounding back into top form. Ohio State has also been playing great lately, but you wonder if three games in three days will start to take its toll on the six-man rotation employed by Thad Matta. If pressed to pick a champ, I'll go with the Badgers. I'd also like to add that I feel bad for Minnesota having to face Penn State in the first round - the Nittany Lions have been playing very tough the last month and a half. What's your thoughts on the tourney?

Josh: I come to the same conclusion as you -- Wisconsin is the team to beat. They stand with Ohio State atop the conference, and as you pointed out, Ohio State might be running on fumes on Sunday (if they get that far). Not only that, but Bo Ryan generally does well in the conference tournament, though he does have a couple of first round exits to go with his two titles.

But first, Wisconsin will have to get through Illinois, who will have a lot to play for in an absolute must-win game to go dancing. Not only that, but the Illini have played Big Ten opponents to a virtual standstill on the season, and that's a much tougher matchup than what the best team in the conference should have to face in the first round.

Alright, let's talk NCAA Tournament. Does the Big Ten have any legitimate Final Four contenders?

Mike: Absolutely. Ohio State has been playing very well, and I don't anticipate the short bench to be as big an issue when you get at least a day in between games. Furthermore, you've got to like having a go-to guy like Evan Turner for those late game situations, and the offensive weapons around him are so impressive. The Buckeyes figure to be a tough out.

As you'd expect, I also think Wisconsin has the potential to go deep. They're such a well-balanced team, and they know exactly what they want to do on the floor. I think I've seen numbers that say tempo tends to drop during the NCAA Tournament (don't quote me on that), and that might also favor this deliberate Badgers squad. As always, it will have a lot to do with matchups, but those are the two teams I'd give the best shot of reaching the Final Four.

Michigan State is something of an enigma. They've got enough talent to make a run, but they haven't really impressed this season. Of course, some of the same critiques could have been made last season, so you never know. Purdue, as I've said, doesn't look like nearly the same team without Hummel, but they still defend and have a great go-to scorer in E'Twaun Moore. I don't like what I've seen from them thus far, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility that they get it together and play like a 2 or 3 seed.

How about you - do you see anything I'm not seeing?

Josh: Ohio State is going to be a popular pick because they have the best player in the country on their team, but we saw how ordinary the Buckeyes become without Turner when he was hurt. And that's in large part because of how many possessions he consumes, and the fact that while the other 4 starters are plenty talented, they definitely depend on Turner to attract defensive attention. The problem is, however, what happens when Turner has a bad shooting night or gets into foul trouble? All it takes is bad game from #21, and they're probably headed back to Columbus. Assuming that doesn't happen however, there aren't a lot of teams capable of taking them down.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, has a lot of weapons now that Leuer is back in the fold. They relied on shooting the 3 quite a bit with him out (and you always worry about one-dimensional teams in the tournament), but now that he's back and playing well, there's a lot of diversity to their game. I know it's been taken as a given that Ohio State has the best starting five in the conference (if not the country), but Wisconsin's lineup can give them a run for their money.

Purdue, I agree, looks like a shell of its former self without Hummel. As for MSU, lightning might strike twice, and certainly Izzo gets a lot out of his teams in the Tournament, but they need to get more from their wings.

Overall, Wisconsin is my choice, with the caveat that Ohio State seems to be getting better seeding treatment than the Badgers, and that could be big as well.

It's been a fun season, but we still have another few weeks to go. See you in Indianapolis.

• Wisconsin holds the best offense and the best defense in conference play, which supports the idea that they were the best team in the conference despite lagging in the standings. This goes to show how big scheduling can be, as the Badgers played the other three contenders each twice. Purdue was the only other team at the top of the standings to do so.
  
• Wisconsin's offensive outburst at the end of the season also spares Northwestern from receiving the Mike Brey Award, although the Wildcats probably would have preferred it was their defense, rather than Wisconsin's offense, that bailed them out.
  
• If you were to move Minnesota's data point vertically up until it was even with MSU, you'd have the Gophers' defense from last year coupled with their offense from this season. Oh, what could have been.

- Josh

Evan Turner (Player of the Year)

It's always a gamble when a player as good as Evan Turner decides to come back to school. He can get hurt, the team could struggle, or his stock could just wilt under prolonged limelight as scouts pick apart weaknesses. Turner did get hurt this season, but one could actually make the argument that it helped his draft stock. Without him, the Buckeyes lost the only three games they played against legitimate challengers. With him, they dropped four games, two of which were against top 10 teams. Not only that, but Turner demonstrated himself to be a quick healer, coming back well ahead of schedule. Obviously, Ohio State has not struggled on the season. And for good measure, Turner improved on last year's impressive showing. Not only is he still an offensive dynamo, but his combination of rebounding and playmaking is an extreme rarity in the college game. Consider that he's got the same defensive rebounding numbers as Greg Oden, and the same assist numbers as Mike Conley in Big Ten play. The Talented Mr. Turner is going to be a millionaire in a few short months, and will still be a relative bargain for his employer. Happy trails, Evan, you've been a pleasure to watch.

Robbie Hummel

In any normal year, Hummel not only wins the conference player of the year award, he runs away with it. Not only did his efficiency jump back to his freshman season levels, he combined it with higher usage. And despite scoring 16 points and gathering 7 boards per game in conference play, the best part of Hummel's game is hard to find in a box score. Before going down with his ACL injury, Hummel turned it over 14 times in 15 games in conference play. When you consider how active Hummel is on the court, that's pretty remarkable. It's sad to see his season end the way that it did, and Purdue's performance in his absence highlights his importance. He'll be back next season, however, and he figures to be an early favorite to lock up Player of the Year honors.

John Shurna

After Turner and Hummel, this team was very hard to fill out. Rest assured, we considered the likes of Sims, Green, Battle, Lucas, Hughes, and others quite seriously. Shurna's performance in Northwestern's finale (31 points, 12 rebounds) pushed him on the 1st team. Shurna's game is a lot like the injured Kevin Coble's -- both are 6-8 forwards who can step out and make 3s with regularity. Both can create for teammates, and both rarely turn the ball over. But on the whole, Shurna's season has been better than any season line Coble has ever put forth, and that's not taking anything away from Coble. Fact of the matter is that when Coble went out with his injury, Northwestern was only losing its second-best player.

Demetri McCamey

McCamey's finish to his season will not make his highlight reel, but he's been great in Big Ten play nonetheless. He's posted the highest assist percentage since Mateen Cleaves' other-worldly 51.6 number in 1999-2000. Unlike Cleaves, however, McCamey played the role of distributor as well as functioning as his team's primary scoring option. His unselfishness will serve him well if he returns for next season, as Bruce Weber will have a bevy of talent at his disposal. He's on our first team this year, but next season he might be an All-American.

William Buford

Speaking of next season, there's justifiably some angst as to how Ohio State will perform without Turner, especially because Turner was a small forward playing the role of point guard (quite well, we should add) as well as the team's best rebounder. Next season, Thad Matta welcomes an outstanding freshman class led by center Jared Sullinger. Sullinger figures to help pick up the rebounding slack, but there's still the role of point guard to consider. Enter William Buford. At the outset of the season, he was described "as one-dimensional as they come" in this space. Well, chalk that up as another BTG miss! Buford has become a bit of a playmaker in his sophomore season, posting a 17.9 assist rate in conference play. That's better than figures posted by the likes of Trent Meacham and Craig Moore last season. Not only that, but Buford has also become a very capable rebounder (17.5 defensive rebounding percentage). Indeed, don't be too surprised if Buford takes on the Evan Turner role for the Buckeyes next season.

Freshman of the Year

This was basically a two-man battle between Drew Crawford and D.J. Richardson that came down to the final games. In the end, Northwestern's forward walks away with the honors. The two are similar players that fit the statistical profile of "shooting guard," but ultimately Crawford was marginally better, and he consumed a few more possessions as well.

Rounding out the All-Freshman team are IU's Jordan Hulls and Christian Watford, as well as Eric May from Iowa. It was not a particularly strong year for Big Ten freshmen, as this was clearly an upperclassmen-dominated conference. Hopefully that pays dividends in the NCAA Tournament.

So to our award winners, congrats!