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Dave Revsine's Bio: Our lead studio host crunches the numbers during football and basketball season. Got a question for Dave? Maybe a stat that caught your eye? Submit a comment below or e-mail Dave on the right. |
| Oct 1 2009, 9:31 AM | Topic: College football |
| As someone who literally watches as much Big Ten football as is humanly possible, I feel fairly confident in my opinions about the conference. Sure, I get some wrong occasionally (that thing about Joe Paterno underestimating his offensive line - I was a bit off on that one). But, overall, I'll stack my opinions on the conference up against just about anyone. Which is a long way of saying that anyone who tells you they know how things are going to come out this year is lying. After Iowa's win at Penn State, I think you could make a legitimate case that any of four or five different teams could emerge on top come November 21. While there may not be a great team in the Big Ten this year, there are plenty of good ones, which should make for an incredibly tight race to the finish. If their schedule weren't so brutal, I'd say the Hawkeyes would be the favorite. The run game is coming around, thanks to Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson, and, as we saw on Saturday night, the defense will take a backseat to nobody. Last week I noted that the Hawkeyes had gone 25 straight quarters without allowing a rushing touchdown. Well, Penn State's lone TD Saturday night came on a 79-yard pass play on its first play from scrimmage, meaning the Hawkeyes' streak is now at 29 quarters and counting. 16-0: Since allowing their last rushing TD (a nine-yard run by Penn State's Derrick Williams in the third quarter of last year's Iowa win over the Nittany Lions) Iowa has rushed for 16 TDs while allowing none. As for the team that Penn State team they beat on Saturday, the loss ends a remarkable run by Joe Paterno. 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s: Paterno has posted five undefeated seasons during his brilliant career in State College – two in the 1960s, and one each in the 70s, 80s, and 90s. This means the 00s will be the first decade where Joe Pa will not have an unblemished campaign. While the Nittany Lions head into their game with Illinois this week off a disappointing outing, things are far worse in Champaign. 17 of 30: The Illini rank either 10th or 11th in the Big Ten in 17 of the 30 team stats that the conference tracks, including scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, total defense, pass offense and pass defense. While the defensive issues are disappointing, the offensive struggles are downright shocking – especially when you consider that the Illini returned 92.7 percent of the offensive yards from a team that had 67 plays of 20 yards or longer last year, second most in the Big Ten. 8: Through three games, the Illini have just eight offensive plays of 20 yards or longer. Seven of those came against FCS (I-AA) opponent Illinois State, with the other one coming against Missouri. Through three games last year, the Illini had 20 plays of 20 yards or longer including nine against Mizzou. In contrast, Purdue seems to have found its big-play offense, at least on the ground: 7, 11: The Boilermakers already have seven runs of 20 or more yards this season. They had just 11 all of last season. While Purdue's 1-3 record is disappointing, it would be fair to say the Boilers are "the best 1-3 team in the nation," at least based on one set of numbers: 12: The Boilermakers' three losses have come by a total of 12 points. That's the smallest combined margin of defeat for any three-loss team in the nation. Purdue is desperate for a win, as is this week's opponent, Northwestern. The 'Cats have lost two straight games that they led in the fourth quarter. The lack of a run game has hurt Northwestern in both games – they've rushed for a grand total of 116 yards in those two outings. Makes you wonder when they might unleash their most dangerous ground weapon – QB Mike Kafka. 95.8/1.8: In six career starts coming into this season, Kafka averaged 95.8 rushing yards per game. In four starts this season, he has averaged 1.8 rushing yards. Northwestern's opponent last week, Minnesota, had no such troubles on the ground. A team that came into the game averaging just 85.7 yards per game got 166 against the 'Cats, continuing this trend: 9-0, 1-7: Over the last two seasons, the Gophers are a perfect 9-0 when they rush for at least 100 yards as a team. They are 1-7 when they don't. That number has held perfectly this year – the Gophers have won all three games when they've gone over 100 on the ground, and lost to Cal when they were held to just 37 rushing yards. Minnesota gets a tough assignment this week in facing a Wisconsin team that's playing as well as anyone in the conference. The Gophers will be hoping to stop this little trend: 0-6: Minnesota is 0-6 in three trophy games under Tim Brewster - the Axe battle with Wisconsin, the Little Brown Jug game against Michigan and the Floyd of Rosedale contest with Iowa. They've lost those six games by an average of 19.5 points. Among the keys to Wisconsin' success this year? They take advantage of opportunities: 16 for 16: The Badgers are a perfect 16 of 16 in the Red Zone this year, including 14 touchdowns. The Badgers aren't the only ones having success putting points on the board. 1976: Michigan has scored at least 30 points in each of its first four games. It's the first time the Wolverines have pulled that off since 1976 when Michigan made it to the Rose Bowl. This would not seem to be a particularly good match-up for a Michigan State team that has struggled mightily on defense, particularly against the pass: 313.6, 18-3: In their last five games against FBS (I-A) teams, the Spartans have allowed a staggering 313.6 passing yards per game. They've given up 18 TD passes while intercepting just three balls. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Spartans have lost all five of those games. They're in jeopardy of matching this dubious mark this Saturday: 1981-82: MSU has not had a losing streak of six straight against FBS foes since the 1981 and 1982 seasons when the Spartans dropped eight in a row. No game has more streaks on the line, though, than Saturday's battle between Ohio State and Indiana: 14: The Buckeyes have won 14 straight games against the Hoosiers. IU last beat Ohio State in 1988. 17: Indiana has lost 17 straight games against Top 10 teams at home. The last win, amazingly, came in 1967 against third-ranked Purdue. 17: Ohio State has held Indiana to 17 points or less in 14 straight times. 15: The Buckeyes come in riding a streak of 15 straight Big Ten road wins, with their last loss coming in 2005 at Penn State. It's an Ohio State record and the longest active conference road win streak in the nation. The conference record, by the way, is 17 in a row, set by Michigan between 1988 and 1992. The Ohio State-Indiana battle is our prime-time game Saturday night, capping off a fantastic day of football on the Big Ten Network. We start it all off with the Auto Owners Insurance Pre-Game Show at 10:30 a.m. ET. We also have two noon games (Michigan vs. Michigan State, Northwestern vs. Purdue). We follow that up with a one-hour State Farm Wrap-Up, then take 90 minutes or so off for good behavior before another Pre-Game Show 6 p.m. ET. Once that's over, there's another Wrap-Up Show. We'll see you on Saturday. |
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