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Dave Revsine's Bio: Our lead studio host crunches the numbers during football and basketball season. Got a question for Dave? Maybe a stat that caught your eye? Submit a comment below or e-mail Dave on the right. |
| Oct 14 2009, 2:47 PM | Topic: College football |
| We have hit the half-way point in the regular season for all but one of the teams in the conference. I thought it might be fun to look back on the predictions I made as we headed home after our summer tour and see how I did. I'll leave in the paragraph that I wrote for each appropriate item, then give my current thoughts. Best Team: Penn State. I say this with one caveat - we saw Ohio State on its second day of practice, so it really was tough to gauge just how good the Buckeyes are. But I was really impressed with PSU. Their only real area of concern is in the secondary, and I'm not sure how many teams on their schedule can make them pay for that (though I'd certainly be worried about that game at Illinois, if I were them). Daryll Clark looked completely in control at QB, the RB crew is as good as any in the conference, and the defensive front seven will be very good. Upon Further Review…: Can't really go with Penn State, seeing as they lost at home to Iowa, though I do still think they're probably the most complete team in the conference. I guess Iowa would have to be my pick here. I still think they're going to trip along the way, though as I just don't think the offense is good enough for them to run the table, particularly given the brutal schedule. Ohio State is obviously in the conversation too, but they are too offensively challenged to be the pick at this point. Best Offensive Line: Iowa. I was really impressed with the Hawks, and I think they'll be outstanding when they have everyone back at full strength. Upon Further Review: I still think Iowa's line is good despite the obvious struggles with lots of injury issues, and they haven't really hit their stride. Still, I think the pick at this point has to be Wisconsin. The Badgers have overcome injuries, run the ball beautifully, and, outside of last Saturday against Ohio State, have done a nice job of keeping their QB upright. Honorable Mention: Ohio State and Penn State. I think the Nittany Lions will be fine here - much better than JoePa is letting on. Upon Further Review: Iowa. I was off on Penn State's group, which really got manhandled in that Iowa game in its only real challenging match-up so far. I've been impressed at times with Michigan's group as well - clearly the most improved in the conference, though the loss of center David Molk has hurt. Best Wide Receivers: Illinois. This group is completely loaded. Arrelious Benn is obviously the headliner, but he is far from the only star in this group. Jeff Cumberland is a match-up nightmare, Jarred Fayson will be an instant impact guy, and Chris Duvalt and A.J. Jenkins both have big play capability. This should be the Big Ten's most formidable passing attack. Upon Further Review: OK, this one was a bit off. Truthfully, I still think they still have the best talent there of anyone in the conference, but it doesn't do a whole lot of good if your QBs can't get you the ball. It's tough to find a really great WR crew in the Big Ten. If I had to choose one, I'd probably go with Michigan State. A healthy Mark Dell, BJ Cunningham and Blair White are a very solid trio. Honorable Mention: Minnesota, Michigan State. Eric Decker is obviously fantastic, but I think the Gophers will be much deeper here this year with the maturation of Brandon Green and the arrival of Hayo Carpenter. MSU's group looks good too - led by a fully healthy Mark Dell. Upon Further Review: I'm disappointed in the lack of depth at Minnesota. They rely even more on Decker than they did last year. He's clearly the most productive WR in the conference, though. I also like Indiana's group of Tandon Doss, DeMarlo Belcher and Terrance Turner. Best Tight Ends: Penn State. If Andrew Quarless has truly put his off-the-field issues behind him (and all indications are that he has), he could be the best tight end in the Big Ten. What puts Penn State over the top, though, is that Mickey Shuler would be in that conversation as well. Upon Further Review: Wisconsin. The Badgers' duo has been more productive and is more of a focal point in the passing game than Shuler and Quarless. Honorable Mention: Wisconsin. Garrett Graham and Lance Kendricks provide an outstanding 1-2 punch. Frankly, it's splitting hairs between Penn State and Wisconsin. Upon Further Review: Penn State. I'd also throw Michigan State in this mix, with Brian Linthicum, Charlie Gantt and Dion Sims. They don't use their guys as much because of how good the receiving crew is, but they're very talented here. As an aside, the Big Ten continues to be an awfully good tight end conference. Best Defensive Line: Ohio State. Again, it's tough to truly judge the Buckeyes since they weren't even wearing shoulder pads the day we saw them. But they certainly look the part physically, and we've seen most of these guys enough in past years to know how talented they are. Lawrence Wilson looks like he's ready to go after two straight season-ending injuries, Thaddeus Gibson and Cameron Heyward are tough to block, and they are solid at tackle with Doug Worthington and Dexter Larimore, among others. Upon Further Review: This is a tough call, as I think the conference has several really good DLs. I'm sticking with OSU, though. Thaddeus Gibson and Cameron Heyward have both had exceptional years, and, as a unit, they've done a nice job of slowing down the run game and getting to the QB. Honorable Mention: Minnesota, Penn State. Both these teams stand out due to the quality of their tackles, an area where the Big Ten is not particularly deep this season. OSU wins out solely due to its depth. The Gophers, in particular, will surprise some people, with Eric Small, Garret Brown and Jewhan Edwards making up a formidable trio. Upon Further Review: I may have been a bit too high on Minnesota, though I do think they've improved a great deal over last year. Iowa was a huge oversight here, and Penn State clearly belongs as well. Impact Freshman: Tate Forcier, Michigan. I think Forcier is perfect for Rodriguez's system. Throws well, particularly on the run, and he runs well. He has everything they need. Seems Rodriguez isn't quite as convinced, given his plans to play three QBs in the opener against Western Michigan, but I still think that, ultimately, Forcier will be the guy. Upon Further Review: Ibid. Nailed that one. Honorable Mention: Edwin Baker, Michigan State. It's evident that both of the freshmen RBs at MSU will get some playing time. I really liked Baker. He was tough to bring down in the drills we saw - really ran hard. I don't think the Spartans will have one "feature" back, but I do think Baker will get his fair share of carries and make quite an impact. Upon Further Review: Right school, right position, wrong guy. Larry Caper, Michigan State. I still liked Baker even more than Caper when we were there and think he'll eventually be quite good, but an early injury prevented him from making an impact (though Mark Dantonio is considering using him this week due to the loss of Glenn Winston). Caper has been great, though, and will have even more of a burden on him with Winston out. Best Quarterback: Daryll Clark, Penn State. Terrelle Pryor is obviously remarkably talented, and Juice Williams is in the hunt if he can cut down on his mistakes, but I think Clark is still the best guy in the conference. He looked incredibly confident in his role this year - such a contrast from a year ago, when he was battling with Pat Devlin in camp. Upon Further Review: Let's be honest here, there's no one that really blows you away. I guess I'd still give it to Clark, though he was quite poor in Penn State's biggest test against Iowa. It's certainly not Pryor. Scott Tolzien? Maybe, until the Ohio State game. Plus, I think Clark is more versatile. Ricky Stanzi? Far too inconsistent. I'm sticking with Clark, though it is kind of by default. Most Improved Quarterback: Mike Kafka, Northwestern. Kafka really threw the ball well when we were in Kenosha, and he did so in extremely windy conditions. Combine that with his obvious skills as a runner, and NU should be fine at the QB position. Upon Further Review: This turned out to be a good call. Kafka has looked good throwing the ball. He has struggled to have the same impact as a runner that he did last year. Early on, it seemed like they were trying to minimize his involvement in the run game. Now that they're calling more read option, it seems that teams are keying on him due to NU's lack of a threat at RB. Best Defensive Backs: Ohio State. They do lose Malcolm Jenkins, one of the better CBs in America, but everyone else is back from a group that was 13th nationally in pass efficiency defense last year. Devon Torrence and Andre Amos both looked fine in the battle to replace Jenkins, and the safety tandem is the best in the conference. Upon Further Review: Ohio State was a good pick, but I think Iowa is a better one. Tyler Sash and Brett Greenwood are everything you'd want from your safeties, and Amari Spievey is on of the conference's better CBs. Honorable Mention: Michigan State, Northwestern. Though there's no individual who blows you away for MSU, they're all solid, and they're very deep. Northwestern's secondary appears to be its best since the 1995 team led the nation in scoring defense. They also have impressive depth. Upon Further Review: Those were two bad picks. I'm really surprised at how bad MSU's secondary has been, though it seems to be coming on a bit. NU's group looked totally lost when Sherrick McManis was out. They've been better since his return. I'd give my honorable mention to Ohio State. Penn State's group has been a pleasant surprise. Best Running Backs: Penn State. Evan Royster and Stephfon Green make up a fabulous 1-2 punch. Between those two and Darryl Clark, the Nittany Lions should again be dynamic on offense. Upon Further Review: Wisconsin. John Clay looks like he's broken out of whatever funk he was in. Zach Brown's injury issues are a setback, but I really liked Montee Ball when we were up there. He could still be a factor. Honorable Mention: Wisconsin, Michigan State. Though both Gerry and Howard thought John Clay looked a little uninspired and a little out of shape, he's still an awfully good back. Add in Zach Brown (who looks as if he's leap-frogged Clay), Erik Smith, and freshman Montee Ball (who might end up redshirting, but really impressed me), and the Badgers are once again loaded. As for the Spartans, I know they don't have a starter yet, but it's not for a lack of worthy candidates. They go about seven-deep here, and many of them look capable of playing and playing well. Perhaps a bit of a stretch, but I think they'll be just fine here. Upon Further Review: Royster and Green are an excellent duo, so Penn State is obviously in this conversation. I really like Michigan's group too. The injury to Carlos Brown is a concern, but if they can get Brown and Minor healthy at the same time, they'd be quite dangerous. Michael Shaw provides some solid depth as well. Best Linebackers: Penn State. The loss of Michael Mauti does hurt. They were raving about him, and it was easy to see why. I watched him in a couple of individual drills and was really impressed. He's the next great one. Still, even without Mauti, it's hard to not to like a group that includes Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman. Upon Further Review: Assuming Sean Lee gets back on the field here soon, it's still Penn State. The depth is limited, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a better trio than Lee, Bowman and Josh Hull. Honorable Mention: Michigan State, Iowa. The Spartans have the conference's best defensive player in Greg Jones. He blitzed from all over the place in the drills. He's going to make some QBs very nervous. Eric Gordon, Adam Decker and Brandon Denson also impressed. Iowa's group is extremely good too. Pat Angerer was all over the field at the practice we saw, and A.J. Edds is outstanding as well. Upon Further Review: Both of these are solid picks for exactly the reasons I outlined. I would also add Minnesota's group to this list. Nate Triplett, Lee Campbell and Simoni Lawrence are all big-time playmakers. The Gophers have done a nice job upgrading their defensive talent over the past couple of years. Most Exciting Freshman: Devon Smith, Penn State. I love this guy. Five-foot-seven and an absolute burner. They threw deep balls to him on two straight passes in 7-on-7 drills where he as at least five yards behind the DB. Look for him to be an instant big-play threat. Upon Further Review: I still think he may make an impact before it's over - he's seen the field some as a WR and return man, but has been battling the after-effects of a concussion. But Forcier has to be the pick here. Honorable Mention: Vincent Smith, Michigan. Another tiny Smith who packs some serious punch, Smith absolutely bowled over a defender in a tackling drill, then, the next time he had the ball, juked another guy out of his uniform with a great move. Upon Further Review: Another guy we haven't seen a whole lot of, who still figures to be an impact player. If I had to revise this, though, I might go with Wisconsin LB Chris Borland. He's been fabulous on special teams and has also stood out in his limited opportunities on defense. So, overall, not too bad. Nailed a few of them and only had a couple that were truly embarrassing. Feel free to leave a comment or shoot me a tweet if you disagree. Huge day for us on Saturday with three games on the BTN. We have Ohio State and Purdue as well as Michigan's non-conference battle at noon ET. We also have the primetime game between Illinois and Indiana. Remember, that means two Auto Owner's Insurance Pre-Games, two State Farm Wrap-Ups and lots of chatting for Gerry, Howard and me. We'll see you then. |
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