Michigan State, Purdue appear to be the class of the conference, but 9 teams have legit NCAA hopes

By Herb Gould

Source: Chicago Sun Times
Posted: Saturday, November 07, 2009 1:00:00 AM EST
Published: Saturday, November 07, 2009 10:54:05 AM EST

This year, it's OK to drink the Big Ten Kool-Aid. Even the national skeptics are on board, putting six Big Ten teams in the Associated Press' preseason Top 25, including two in the top 10: No. 2 Michigan State, No. 7 Purdue, No. 15 Michigan, No. 16 Ohio State, No. 23 Illinois and No. 25 Minnesota.

The conference returns all five members of the 2008-09 All-Big Ten first team: MVP Kalin Lucas, Talor Battle, Manny Harris, JaJuan Johnson and Evan Turner. Six more second- and third-teamers also return, giving the league 11 of its top 15 back.

In addition, Indiana, Minnesota and Illinois are among the programs excited about their recruiting classes. And they aren't the only schools that expect newcomers to make an immediate impact.

Michigan State and Purdue are realistic Final Four candidates, and nine teams head into the season with legitimate NCAA tournament hopes. Even Northwestern and Penn State might be knocking on the Big Dance door.

The way things are looking, the Big Ten even has a shot at winning the ACC/Big Ten Challenge for the first time in the 11-year history of the event.

Here's a team-by-team look at why there's so much excitement:

1. Michigan State

Key number - 5: Trips to the Final Four the Spartans have made in the last 11 seasons, tops in the nation.

TOM IZZO SAYS: ''We lost more than people give us credit for: a lockdown defender [Travis Walton] and a glue guy [Goran Suton]. But I like what we have back, too.''

THE STORY LINE: Kalin Lucas leads a superb group of returnees that includes Raymar Morgan, Delvon Roe, Durrell Summers and Chris Allen. Walton and Suton are significant losses. And Izzo must get interior help from two freshmen, 6-10 Garrick Sherman and 6-9 Derrick Nix.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Coming off their first Big Ten title since 2001 and a Final Four trip to nearby Detroit, the Spartans face another year of great expectations. But they have the personnel to fulfill them.

2. Purdue

Key number -- 65: Miles from West Lafayette to Indianapolis, the site of the 2010 Final Four.

MATT PAINTER SAYS: ''When you're able to win the Big Ten tournament and go to the Sweet 16, you're excited about the season starting. Hopefully, we can do some things that are special this year.''

THE STORY LINE: Even with Robbie Hummel in and out of the lineup because of a back problem, Purdue went 27-10 last season, won its first Big Ten tournament and reached the NCAA Sweet 16 for the first time since 2000. With Hummel healthy and 6-10 JaJuan Johnson poised to take another step for a maturing and deep squad, the Boilermakers are stoked.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Purdue will need to find a way to deal with elite, athletic teams. But it has the pieces to follow the lead of Michigan State, which reached the Final Four in Detroit last season, and give the Big Ten another close-to-home Final Four team.

3. Ohio State

Key number -- 0: Freshmen at Ohio State, which has had three one-and-done 7-footers the last three seasons in Greg Oden, Kosta Koufos and B.J. Mullens.

THAD MATTA SAYS: ''David Lighty is a guy that has won a Big Ten championship and played for a national championship and is a strong candidate for defender of the year. He's a guy we need on the floor as much as we can have him.''

THE STORY LINE: When Lighty (foot) went down last season, Evan Turner stepped up, leading the Big Ten in scoring. Now Lighty's back, joining Turner and William Buford to form one of the most skilled trios around. If 7-foot transfer Zisis Sarikopoulos, from Greece by way of UAB, and Nikola Kecman, a 6-8 sophomore from Serbia, can handle their roles, the Buckeyes will be right in the hunt.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Matta, who has specialized in monster recruiting classes, has assembled a team with a big upside. And he doesn't face the pressure to blend in stud recruits for a change. It looks like a very good situation.

4. Illinois

Key number -- 4: Quality freshmen Illinois is adding. D.J. Richardson should start, Brandon Paul will be a top reserve and Joseph Bertrand and Tyler Griffey will have chances to create roles, although Bertrand might redshirt because of a lingering knee injury.

BRUCE WEBER SAYS: ''D.J. Richardson replaces what Chester Frazier gave us -- that tough, hard-nosed guy that has great intensity and just gets after it as soon as he steps on the court. And he has shot the ball better than we anticipated.''

THE STORY LINE:A lean Demetri McCamey seems poised to be more consistent at the point, and shooter Alex Legion is showing signs he's ready. If skilled front-liners Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis can work around their muscle gap, Illinois can build on the positive strides it made last season.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The precocious freshmen will add a lot. If the juniors can develop the thick hides that departed seniors Frazier, Trent Meacham and Calvin Brock had, Illinois will meet the challenges it will face in what figures to be a rugged Big Ten.

5. Michigan

Key number -- 2: Top-five scorers returning. Manny Harris (16.9 ppg) was second and DeShawn Sims (15.4) fifth in the Big Ten.

JOHN BEILEIN SAYS: ''We're still hunting. Until we can get Michigan to the point where this is normal -- to be in the NCAA tournament -- we haven't turned anything around yet.''

THE STORY LINE: Harris and Sims, who guided the undersized Wolverines to their first NCAA tournament appearance in 11 years last season, will try to keep it going. But Michigan probably will need some complementary big men to step up their contributions.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Pencil in another trip to the Big Dance. But Beilein's shoot-first offense will go a lot further if the Wolverines answer their interior questions positively.

6. Northwestern

Key number -- 0: All-time NCAA tournament appearances by Northwestern, which has come up empty since it hosted the inaugural NCAA championship game in 1939.

BILL CARMODY SAYS: ''I don't think it's that much pressure. That's why you're here. There are 330 Division I teams, and that's everyone's goal -- to get in the NCAA. The guys embrace that.''

THE STORY LINE: The pieces are in place for NU to break its tournament drought. Deft scorer Kevin Coble is a senior, and crafty point guard Michael Thompson are the starting points. Solid frontcourt depth -- a rarity at NU -- and incoming freshman Drew Crawford also are reasons for optimism.

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Cats proved they could win on the road by beating Michigan State in East Lansing and Purdue in West Lafayette last season. If they can get more things done at home, they'll be headed in the right direction.

7. Minnesota

Key number -- 32.7: Three-point shooting percentage for Minnesota last season, 11th in the Big Ten.

TUBBY SMITH SAYS: ''I hope they took away that we tasted postseason play at the NCAA level. Now what do we have to do to go deeper into the NCAA tournament?''

THE STORY LINE: The Golden Gophers were more gritty than pretty last season. Nothing wrong with that. But they probably will need some scorers to go along with their twin towers, 6-11 Ralph Sampson III and 6-10 Colton Iverson, who should make strides as sophomores after solid debuts. Lawrence Westbrook leads the grinders.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Scrap those rumors about Smith bolting for a warmer climate and a fancier gym. With his top nine scorers back and a recruiting class that might be second only to Indiana's in the conference, Smith figures to keep things toasty in venerable Williams Arena.

8. Wisconsin

Key number -- 7: Schools that have appeared in the last 11 NCAA tournaments: Arizona, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Michigan State, Texas and Wisconsin.

BO RYAN SAYS: ''We know how good the league is going to be. We have some players that have to grow up in a hurry.''

THE STORY LINE: With frontcourt mainstays Marcus Landry and Joe Krabbenhoft gone and the Big Ten poised for a big season, Ryan faces a big challenge to keep the Badgers' NCAA tournament streak going. That's especially true because Wisconsin doesn't have the obvious go-to leaders it usually leans on.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Jordan Taylor and Trevon Hughes are good candidates to step up in the backcourt. Front-liners such as Keaton Nankivil, Jon Leuer and promising redshirt freshman Jared Berggren will need to handle big loads for Wisconsin in the improved Big Ten.

9. Penn State

Key number -- 0: Times Penn State has had back-to-back winning seasons in Big Ten play since it joined the conference in 1993. The Nittany Lions were 10-8 in the Big Ten last season.

ED DeCHELLIS SAYS: ''Jamelle Cornley's numbers were very good, but more important for us was his presence, his toughness, his spirit, the command of the locker room. I'm hoping Talor Battle can provide that leadership.''

THE STORY LINE: Snubbed by the NCAA, Penn State proved itself by winning the NIT last spring. Despite losing their Nos. 2 and 3 scorers in Cornley and Stanley Pringle, the Nittany Lions return a good core around first-team All-Big Ten guard Battle. But they face a tough road to moving up in an improved Big Ten.

THE BOTTOM LINE: After posting a school-record 27 victories last season, Penn State will have to overachieve to take the next step, which is an NCAA tournament appearance.

10. Indiana

Key number -- 1: Ranking of Indiana's recruiting class in the Big Ten (11th in the nation by Rivals.com). Small forward Christian Watford and guards Maurice Creek and Jordan Hulls headline the group.

TOM CREAN SAYS: ''The best thing is that we're on the upswing. When we're in practice, when we're recruiting, when we're planning, we really feel good about the direction. The program's moving forward.''

THE STORY LINE: Doc Rivers' son, Jeremiah, a junior transfer from Georgetown, is expected to upgrade the point-guard position. Between holdovers such as Devan Dumes and Verdell Jones and the incoming freshmen, Indiana should be competitive on the perimeter. Led by Watford, the Hoosiers also will have freshman help upfront.

THE BOTTOM LINE: If Crean can coax the intensity out of his players that he got last season, the Hoosiers should add a few victories to their 1-17 record in the Big Ten and position themselves to take a bigger step next season.

11. Iowa

Key number -- 4: Transfers who left: Jake Kelly (to Indiana State), Jeff Peterson (to Arkansas), Jermain Davis (to Minnesota State) and David Palmer (to Northern Kentucky).

TODD LICKLITER SAYS: ''We know the expectations are low. But if predictions always came true, there would be no need to play the games.''

THE STORY LINE: Patience remains the word at Iowa, where Lickliter is making recruiting inroads. Meanwhile, in the wake of a program left in disarray by Steve Alford, the transfers continue. Kelly, who wanted to be closer to home, is the player lowa will miss most.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Guards Matt Gatens and Dean Bawinkel and forward Jarryd Cole will try to hold down the fort until reinforcements arrive. At least Iowa will stay close to home, playing 13 of its first 18 games at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, where plenty of tickets figure to be available.



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